Network now...NEWS
NPD: Software Decline, PS3 Growth Forecast
Game industry analysts have weighed in with US sales predictions for the month of January ahead of the NPD Group’s release of official market data this Thursday.
Wedbush’s Michael Pachter forecast console and handheld software sales of $655 million, down four per cent year-on-year, while Cowen and Company’s Doug Creutz said he expects a two per cent decline.
Pachter predicted January’s bestselling games were holiday top sellers Call Of Duty Modern Warfare 2, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Wii Fit Plus and Wii Sports Resort, along with January releases Mass Effect 2 and Darksiders.
Cowen forecast 825,000 Mass Effect 2 sales, which he labelled “an impressive total considering it was only on sale for five days during the month”. He also predicted that Darksiders sold 430,000 copies, while Army Of Two: The 40th Day and Bayonetta each shifted “around 300,000 units”.
On the hardware front, Wedbush and Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) believe PS3 recorded the largest year-on-year growth, while Nintendo platforms topped overall console sales. “In dollar terms, we expect hardware sales to be down around five per cent,” said Pachter.
Monthly hardware sales estimates (Wedbush / EEDAR):
Wii - 555,000 (-19%) / 575,000 (-16%)
DS - 525,000 (+2%) / 510,000 (-1%)
360 - 340,000 (+10%) / 284,000 (-8%)
PS3 - 330,000 (+62%) / 285,000 (+40%)
PSP - 150,000 (-13%) / 145,000 (-16%)
PS2 - 75,000 (-27%) / 80,000 (-22%)
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This coming form people claiming that an HD Wii will be coming for like that past 2 or 3 years.
Pay no heed to these analysts: year-on-year statistics are essentially meaningless.
so, you believe that the PS3 will look greatest during what has historically been the slowest time of year for gaming, then will become stagnant and maybe even dwindle during the bussiest time of year for gaming? no offense, but that's some pretty backwards logic.
also, the first half of 2008 wasn't terrible for the 360 per say; it was just a better time for the PS3. as soon as the 360 dropped in price it started outselling the PS3, and did so until Sony dropped the price of the PS3.
personally, in the US i believe both systems will be virtually neck and neck for the duration of this generation.
No, what he's saying is that the year-on-year growth for PS3 will look great the first half of this year, because it was so bad last year. However, when taken in perspective, the first half of this year is essentially meaningless when compared to the number of systems that are sold in the second half of the year.
At that point, the year-on-year growth should be far less pronounced for PS3 because it coincides with the boost it saw the previous year due to PS3 Slim. So, of course, PS3 will enjoy greater sales the second half of the year compared to the first half, but the second half won't show as drastic an improvement year-on-year.
I agree that PS3 and 360 sales should be pretty close the first half of this year - probably for both US and Europe (particularly, UK). However, I suspect MS will drop prices by $50 on each SKU; either at E3 or around the launch of Halo: Reach, which will temporarily boost it's numbers over PS3 for a few months.
Microsoft have already done this so called $50 price cut in the UK and Europe. In the UK you can get Arcades for 115 GBP when only in September Microsoft raised the price to 160 GBP and actually went out there and advertised it as that! What a gaff! Also you can get Elites for 180 GBP with about 2 games and 200 GBP with 4 games and sometimes more. I mean how much cheaper can they go than that? Arcade at 99.99 GBP and Elite at 149.99 GBP sounds decent but that will not happen at March, more like when Natal arrives in Q4 2010. Even then Microsoft have not sold enough to drive the economies of scale into the system as per the PS2 so do not expect rock bottom prices i.e. a $99 360 one day like you see the PS2. Sony have an inherent manufacturing strength and we saw this with the PS3 Slim. Reports are stating now that it may be breaking even and there are lots of further cost reductions to come according to Sony's CFO.
If the core games such as GOW 3, Heavy Rain and GT5 shine then the PS3 will see a large uptake when you factor in 3D movies giving a second wind to Blu-Ray Disc (in the Summer) and the free PSN and perhaps PSN Premium Services being the icing on the cake. 3D Games also will make a splash/buzz. I think things are looking pretty rosy for the PS3 now and even though it lost the FF13 exclusivity I still expect FF fans to drive towards the PS3, for 'many' reasons. I do not care what system you support, but the amount of diversity on the PS3 this year is what will hold it strong in the long-run.
The 360 seems to be going back to another Fable and another Halo. Well we have seen these this generation, how many systems will they actually help shift? Granted GOW 3 and GT5 are not new IP's but it has been a while and graphically they will be stunning and furthermore new in terms of this generation. I honestly think if it was not for Natal, the PS3 would end this generation on top in sales against the 360 by some margin.
Yes Grognard that's exactly what I was trying to say. And I'm sure that's what we'll see this year, too.
Again as I said multiple times early last year about the 360's early success over 2008 was that the 360's first half 2008 was terrible so an increase over terrible isn't anything to brag about. You'll see the same thing this year with the PS3. The first 6-7 months will look amazing growth-wise for the PS3, but hit the tail end of 2010 and their numbers will be flat or down.
I'm not trying to be a downer I'm just being realistic (like I was with the 360 last year as you can see here http://www.edge-online.com/news/npd-xbox-360-sales-rise-as-other-systems...).